TD#11 upgraded to Tropical Storm on Monday evening: Update of “Joaquin”

Disorganized low pressure moving north-northeast on the Eastern Gulf is going to come ashore right near the Big Bend on Tuesday. Tropical moisture is going to continue streaming northward over Florida & Southeast United States causing a lot of rainfall. There is no time for strengthening or organization of any consequence and there is potential for flooding and gusty winds on Tuesday evening including Southeast Georgia, Northeast Florida and Jacksonville.

Tropical Depression #11 (TD#11) had been upgraded to a tropical storm called “Joaquin” late on Monday evening. This is the 10th storm being named in this season. The storm is going to be raging for a couple of days but there are some forecasts which indicate long term strengthening later this week and into the weekend. Forecasts have been moving west & ultimately the track is going to depend on upper level troughs of low pressure which will move to the eastern US later this week. It is possible that “Joaquin” is going to be captured by upper level troughs and move closer to the coast.

The strong shear belt, a mainstay this hurricane season, persists from Eastern Caribbean into the Central Atlantic. This is providing a barrier to cyclones or tropical waves which are trying to get across the Atlantic westward. Shear is even strong over northern Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

The Pacific has become active again. “Marty” formed on Sunday and is near Mexico with hurricane warnings coming into effect near Acapulco while the storm was strengthening on Monday before it died down by Monday night.

Another tropical storm called “Niala” developed in the Central Pacific. This is the 11th tropical cyclone in the Central North pacific that ties the record for the most of its kind in a single season. The earlier seasons were in 1992 & 1994.